Citing “uninspiring” prospects and a stronger dollar, global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley, has cut price forecasts for most metals and minerals for this year.
The US-based firm has predicted that although Gold and silver prices will go high in 2012, they will be more moderate than previously anticipated. It added that prices of base metals and bulk commodities such as iron ore will fall marginally before recovering again in 2013.
“Our bear-case scenario for 2012 and 2013 in particular reflects the downside risks in base metals and bulk commodities from this major growth risk,” the firm said.
“In general, we are negative on the metals with sizable surpluses such as aluminum, nickel, lead and zinc,” the report said. However, the firm said it remained positive on copper, which it said was “supported by low inventories, high levels of supply disruption and a restocking cycle in China,” it added.
Despite remaining a “favored base metal,” copper could average $3.70 a pound in 2012, down from $4.01 a pound in 2011 as well as an earlier 2012 forecast of $3.80 a pound. A strong U.S. dollar and weak euro are negative for commodities in general, the house said.
Among other metals, aluminum could average $1.02 a pound, down from $1.05 a pound forecast earlier and $1.10 a pound in 2011 while nickel could average $9 a pound, down from $10 a pound forecast earlier and $10.40 a pound in 2011, it said in the report.
Gold, however, could average $1,845 a troy ounce in 2012, rising 19% from $1,546 an ounce in 2011, although that is lower than an earlier 2012 forecast of $2,200 an ounce. The more moderate expectation reflects the impact of an anticipated strengthening of the U.S. dollar, Morgan Stanley said.
“We still anticipate significant annual increases in gold and silver prices in 2012 from strong investment demand,” as the safe-haven appeal is expected to continue despite a strengthening dollar, it said.